Risk Comparison: Options Versus Equities - Part 1
While future articles will return to focusing on the option Greeks, a recent comment regarding risk really piqued my interest. The age old discussion about risk versus reward, equities versus options, and the fundamental difference between Nassim Taleb’s “Black Swan” risk and what most people perceive as ordinary risk.
In a perfect world, financial markets are by design a discounting mechanism of a cash flow stream, risk versus reward, and a psychological environment where the difference between profits and losses is merely perception. In the end, trading is all about the mastery of risk mitigation and leveraging probability.
I am an options trader, not because I do not like equities or futures, but because I fear the perception of their so-called safety. Most academics and the average investor believe that financial markets, specifically individual stocks follow a Gaussian, or log normal distribution. While various economists and statisticians have argued this point for decades, to understand that price distributions are in fact not strictly Gaussian.
Price distributions are capable of exhibiting more than the predicted occasions of price inhabiting the extreme regions of the distribution curve. Understanding these concepts is critical in order to have a robust understanding of risk. This type of phenomenon is called “fat tail” risk; statisticians refer to it as leptokurtosis. It is this degree of risk well beyond the normally distributed range to which Taleb has characterized as “Black Swan” risk.
In financial markets, having accepted that these fat tails do in fact exist and exist with a frequency far beyond what is intuitively apparent, risk becomes significantly harder to quantify. When risk becomes more difficult to quantify it can be said that investors and traders have significantly more exposure to a catastrophic event than they realize.
In basic terms, the financial world we live in today is wrought with fat tails. Government integration and manipulation of financial markets, the Federal Reserve’s (supposedly independent) direct engagement into the bond market, and specifically treasuries and mortgage backed securities creates an environment in those markets where distributions are not statistically normalized. Geopolitical risk such as the potential for an Israeli air strike against Iran places unconditional risk on a variety of risk assets, at the forefront light sweet crude oil.
If one considers all the various risks extant, risk today seems excruciatingly high. Professors on Minyanville have recently called into question whether paper assets like the Gold ETF GLD is accurately priced. It is widely believed that there is significantly less physical gold versus gold-backed paper. This adds yet another element of uncertainty to an increasingly uncertain environment.
What would happen to the gold ETF GLD if an analyst announced that the GLD ETF no longer had access to physical gold? What would happen to the valuation? How can they maintain adequate capital levels inside the ETF if gold demand rises while physical supply diminishes? The answer is contraction in the NAV price of the gold ETF. In real terms, the ETF owns less gold than the paper supposedly represents and price must come down to indicate this discrepancy. Make no mistake, the market will be happy to provide the swift and unforgiving necessity of adjusting to parity.
While the above offers basic examples of fat tails, the increased statistical variation has a name. The name of this type of condition where fat tails surround us and atypical logarithmic distribution takes place is called kurtosis. As a side note, since recent and forthcoming articles are going to focus on the Greeks, kurtosis comes from the Greek word meaning υρτός, kyrtos, or kurtos. (Just thought I’d throw that in there for a synergistic moment)
A scenario similar to the condition in which we find financial markets today could likely be summarized as a period of time where Leptokurtosis has become prevalent. Leptokurtosis is a statistical phenomenon where a population’s distribution, in our case equities, has a rather pronounced peak around the average. This peak is representative of a population that is rife with fat tails, higher variance, and a propensity for abnormally large swings in the standard deviation of returns.
What does all this mumbo jumbo mean? It means that when fat tails are present within a leptokurtic distribution, risk literally can become infinite. Fat tails and leptokurtosis are just a few of the many statistical economic studies that have caught the eye of many academics, specifically in the areas of advanced statistics, mathematics, and . . . economics. Distributions, kurtosis, and fat tails are the science behind behavioral finance. To most people this subject matter is boring, however it is only boring if you have never experienced the gut wrenching expression of these phenomena in the market; after that experience, the subject becomes transfixing.
The average investor believes that when they buy a stock the likelihood of it declining significantly in a short period of time is relatively minimal. We have been conditioned by Wall Street snake oil salesmen that due to inflationary pressure, over long periods of time equities must rise as a function of inflation. Everything is a buy in the long term, plus it makes for a great story to build a business model around that the retail crowd buys into. While this may be true in the long run, we live finite lives which do not have the luxury of allowing behavioral mean reversion over geological periods of time.
Right now risk is excruciatingly high. We have a variety of risks and uncertainties that are plaguing financial markets. The statistics behind the market today would likely exemplify the excessive risk built into the current system. So how exactly does this relate to options you might be wondering? I trade options instead of individual stocks to reduce risk. Options offer a variety of ways to hedge risk, even after a trade has been initiated. Options allow for manipulation where as with stocks and futures there is little one can do besides fully hedge a position.
The reason I utilize options instead of futures or equities for swing trades is because by definition they are insulated from outlying events such as an unexpected act of war or a natural disaster which could interrupt the flow of commerce for an extended period of time. Options are inherently less risky than stocks because of the leverage built into them. Since all moneys invested in the market are subject to Black Swan risk, the ability to control an equivalent position with dramatically less capital commitment is a core risk reduction strategy.
Yes, a trader can lose his/her entire investment if they own an option naked. Experienced option traders that buy and sell calls or puts naked and then hold them for extended periods of time is likely an anomaly. Experienced option traders will use some form of a spread to mitigate their risk further. Additionally, most online brokers offer option traders access to contingent stops which are based on the underlying asset’s intraday price.
Fat tails and leptokurtosis are the result of financial markets reacting violently to unexpected events, similar to what happened this week when the jobs number was much worse than expected or to the still unknown factors which precipitated the recent “flash crash”. Large price swings similar to what we have seen recently are usually attributed to higher volatility. Higher volatility for prolonged periods of time is just another symptom that points to fatter tails and leptokurtic distributions. Reliance on the Gaussian, log normal distributions likely have some of the “machines” on Wall Street in a situation where their models do not work.
Option traders leaning long into the close on Wednesday that utilized specific types of spreads had limited risk. They did not have to worry if the market gapped their stop. Their risk was limited from the moment they initiated the trade. In contrast, an equity trader that went long before the close on Wednesday could have exited if they had access to the premarket, however if they didn’t the gap down found them losing more than they originally set out to lose. The market gapped over their stop, leaving them vulnerable to further downside. The unquestioning reliance on stops to close positions in times of Black Swan events is flawed at its core because it denies the very existence of unknown and unknowable risk.
This is just one example of how equity traders who routinely hold positions overnight are exposing themselves to potentially unidentifiable levels of risk in today’s market. If we are in a period where leptokurtosis and subsequent fat tails in the distribution prevail nothing is impossible when risk is being calculated. By statistical definition, a period where a fat tail(s) exist indicates a period where risk is extremely high.
Log normal modeling software will significantly underestimate the true risk in financial markets. What trading software and price models are you using in your analysis? If you are using a gut feel or one type of stock chart to help guide your decisions about risk, you could potentially be mischaracterizing risk by as much as 5-7 standard deviations. 5-7 standard deviations is scary my friend, the kind of scary that days that have nicknames that start with “black” are made of.
Prospering During The Tough Economic Times
Want to prosper during these tough economic times? Some people are struggling, but we are some of those who are prospering during these seemingly challenging times because we are driven with new business opportunities, increased revenues, things like new book deals, and stronger and healthier relationships that have more intimacy than we ever thought.
Why are we thriving, no matter what is going on in the world around us, while others seem to be challenged? The difference between those who are magnetizing their fair share of abundance to them, and those that are either only getting by or feeling stuck, is the vibration level ” the frequency at which their own energy vibrates. When we turn on a higher frequency in our inner worlds, our outer world must mirror that back to us in everything we do!
The body is very much like a radio tower constantly transmitting thoughts and feelings on a specific frequency into the Universe. The thoughts and feelings you are having mentally create a vibration of energy that you send out throughout the universe. Then its reflected back to you by the Universe, producing results you can see, smell, taste and touch! Its an automatic manifesting machine and you cannot shut it off. It works according to the Law of Attraction and it will never stop working while you are still living and breathing. The only power you truly over it is to choose where to place your focus and your intention in this process ” in the HERE AND NOW!
“Every type of focus, strong thought, visualization, worked up imagination, intention, all sets energy into motion. Whether you know it or not, energy is all there is.” ~ Dr. Jay Polmar
If your body energy has been living in a heightened state of feeling free, abundant and in love with life as it is, you will attract all sorts of positive outcomes with effortless love in your life, you will attract the people and things you desire into your life.
If your body energy repeats daily feelings of being afraid, not having enough or being (in any way) needy, you will manifest experiences that are very hard. You do not want to focus in this direction, just release this old pattern of thinking and feeling, reprogram your vibration to FEEL alive and positive about everything in life! The key to being able to transform life is very simply to imagine it and walk into the frequency of a super positive way of thinking and feeling ” its that easy, and everything will follow that natural path that you are creating.
Yes, you are a supernatural, yet quite natural, magnet, attracting to a something you always focus on in your life; good or bad ” its up to you. Do you know how to turn from negative to positive and, to stay positive. Thats was success with this system brings.
If you are not getting what you want out of life, its time to transform your vibration! You already have all the tools you need to shift your vibration and harness your own powers to manifest ” 1) thought 2) vision 3) focus 4) feelings all you need is desire ” passionate desire and watch how the Universe is assisting you to naturally attract prosperity, better relationships, more opportunities, and everything else you really want.
If you order Dr. Polmars ” The Course on Money, you will receive the first 4 monthly supplements on The Millionaire Mindset, and a Copy of the Millionaires Ten Commandments and Money, Power, and Sex to complete your learning from Dr. Jay Polmar, whos earned millions during his life, but dedicated his life to helping others turn millionaires.
Money Motivated People Choose A Financial Planner Career
There are some people that are naturally drawn to dealing with money. If this describes you let us discover what you need to know about a financial planner career. You will learn how to start this new found journey from college you need to have to opening a business offering this service to the public. Statistics show that this is a very lucrative job.
This job consists of advising clients on how to use their money wisely. You help them to set goals on saving money for larger purchases such as buying real estate. You teach the customer how to make a budget and stick to it. Part of you job is to look at their finances and determine the plan of action and see it through from start to finish.
Part of this kind of job requires you to take several college classes. You must obtain a bachelors degree, there are employers that like you to have a graduates or masters degree in business administration to get hired. There is one other class that is nice to have and it is a Certified Financial Planner class. This is great for you as it makes you an expert in your field.
Each state has certain requirements for those professionals that have licenses. They require each licensed person to take continuing education classes every two years. You must take the class in order to keep your license active. If you choose not to take the class your license will not be renewed and it will have a status of non active. They make it easy for you by allowing you to take the courses online at your own home.
A planner can work for a single company or open a business and choose to work with several clients. There are pros and cons to each opportunity. Working for an employer you will probably enjoy benefits like health insurance or bonuses. On the other hand if you are self employed you make your own hours, you are responsible for leasing a business property and paying for health care.
After you have been preforming you job for a month or two and you find you would like more work to do, one thing you might look into would be working as consultant. It would mean more hours of you free time but it also means more money in your pocket. You would be using you skills to help people use their money in a way that makes them extra funds. Teaching them how to budget, these are things you do in your job now. Once you get a few clients you decide how many you can handle at a time and work a full time position.
Your clients will be people who are young and want to save for their first home. Older couples who are thinking about their retirement which is right around the corner. People that are looking for safe ways to invest and earn money that way. Each client is different in their needs and are looking to you for answers. This is the kind of position where your people skills come into play as well as being patient. With those attributes you will succeed.
At this point you have some ideas of what you need to know about a financial planner career. You will need to spend a lot of time in college getting those degrees before gong to work. Then decide if you want to become certified in you field. You should be able to communicate effectively with all kinds of clients. Make sure that you give each person your best advice.
Futures: Soft Markets and Lots of Leveraging Power
Stocks are temporary loans, for all intents and purposes. You acquire a certain amount, based upon your wherewithal, and then you take possession of a certain amount of certificates entitling you to the value of your investment. When the market value of these stocks increases, you can sell your stocks for the market value, entitling you to the difference. Hence, when yours stocks “go up” you make a profit. But, when your stocks lose value, you quite clearly lose value as well.
Hard stocks, however, lead to hard losses. You may prefer the softer margins of the futures market. To begin this volatile career as a futurist, you need only pony up to the margins set by each commodity on the market. So, for instance, you like that the margin (think of margins as ante in a poker game) for wheat — or let’s say sugar. The initial investment margin for a commodity, therefore, may be $5,000 or so.
Once you have invested the initial margin amount you may begin to wheel and deal using smaller increments known as e-minis. Now, it may help you to think of this margin in term of your own home. Imagine putting down 20% of your home’s value in order to steer its potential open market value. Heady stuff, indeed. But be wary and stay focused or you will suffer the fate of many a day trader in the 1990s.
Now, thanks in part to the Online Trading Academy, let’s indulge in a borrowed example. Let us presume that a given e-mini trading price is valued at $980. The market value is computed by taking the dollar value per e-mini point ($50) and multiplying it by the last trading price. Thus, $980 multiplied by $50 equals $49,000. Now, say the initial margin value, as set by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, is $5,625. This means for $5,625 you can determine a futures contract worth $49,000. This represents a 9:1 leverage ratio.
This tremendous leveraging power, however, comes at the cost of liquid capital. Replenishing undervalued or depleted e-minis means having instant access to cash. Your Roth IRA or trust fund will do you no good. If the market moves against your futures, you will be responsible for meeting your margins should they fall below market value. Failure to do so will handicap your ability to trade as quickly and lucratively as you might like.
