Should You Use the PC Ratio?
In this article, we’ll review some of the major pros and cons of using the put call ratio to help anticipate market turns and trends. Let’s start with the pros.
Probably the most obvious advantage of using the Put Call Ratio is that it reports something that is often considered one of the primary market drivers, i.e. market sentiment.
Secondly, the data used to calculate the put call ratio is widely available to all investors with access to the internet.
The third supporting point is that, because historical data is rather abundant, the ratio can be charted easily using most major trading platforms or charting packages.
The fourth point in support of the put call ratio is that it is an easy concept to grasp for even the beginner trader or investor.
And the last pro of using the put call ratio is that it helps investors identify oversold and overbought conditions early enough to anticipate and act on new trends.
And now, for balance, the cons.
One of the major cons of using the p/c ratio is its simplicity. The simple calculation doesn’t always reflect a such a complex dynamic as investor psychology.
A second con of using the standard method of calculating the put call ratio is that it only accounts for the volume activity of options traded and not the dollar amount.
Thirdly, the p/c ratio is not a stand-alone indicator and, to be useful, must be applied with other indicators of market sentiment.
Fourthly, to calculate the p/c ratio for an individual stock, there must be options offered on the issue. So, the ratio cannot be calculated for smaller stocks.
The fifth con is that the options must have enough volume to reveal meaningful trends in investor sentiment.
So, those are some of the advantages of using the put call ratio.
So, should you incorporate the put call ratio into your analysis?
The put call ratio is a handy indicator for many investors and traders. But it should always be applied with full the knowledge of its limitations.
Technical Analysis and the Wider Meaning
The origins of technical analysis can be traced as far back as the 18th century, to candlestick charts. Frenzied 18th century Japanese rice traders pioneered the future foundations of technical analysis, formulating a basic charting system for trading rice contracts. The founder of the system, Homma Munehisa went on to gain Japanese acclaim as an honorary samurai for his trading prestige. Time has moved on but the efficient, logical art of technical analysis continues in many forms within the modern day stock market. We take a look at just how individuals are embracing the technical mindset as part of their modern day trading activity.
The definition of technical analysis varies but a simple idea pervades most definitions, with the idea of Technical analysis reflecting a method of evaluation taking into account key features pulled from physical charting data including pricing and open interest levels, to speculate on future market trends.
The technical analysis theory tends to co-exist with a fundamental approach. The ability to comprehend fundamental analysis will aid your understanding of technical analysis through this innate difference. Some traders choose to implement both theories and others defiantly only believe in one school of thought. Analysis need not be subjected to this sense of categorization and an understanding of both combined with a willingness to acknowledge that both may have potential positive and negative outcomes demonstrates a good breadth of analytical ability.
Fundamental analysis considers the economic factors influencing possible stock value, whereas technical analysis is based on existing pricing data. The fundamentals take multiple forms encompassing everything from political change through to management structures. Imagine the idea of fundamentals as the concept of looking at a book sitting on a table, you can see the front cover and using the location of the book and who is sitting next to the book, you can theorize the type of book it is and the books future movement. A technical approach will ignore the external environment the book exists in and will read the past chapters in the book to predict the books possible ending.
Whilst we have been quick to categorise analysts as technical there are many different versions of technical analysis with individuals choosing to re-interpret or move forward data analysis. Traditionally known as chartists, chart focused individuals have created labels for pattern types including flag or triangle patterns which occur repeatedly. Conversely JM Hurst has pioneered new research into the interpretation of these specific signals. Technical analysis software provides an outlet for the trader to tailor specific design indicators and signals encouraging a freedom of thought despite the seemingly uniform chartist approach.
Technical analysis invites the trader to build a strategic mindset, as with any strategy, risk is still very much present but a technical focus helps to create direction. The ability to interpret charting data opens the gates to an array of other technical possibilities including fibonnaci and identifying volatility smiles.
Conspiracy Theory CDOs Anyone.
Today’s economics are not for the timid. Above and beyond knowing the basics of how money works, there is another layer which needs to be fathomed. That layer is called by many shadow banking.
The public would be wise to become very intimate to the games afoot. The alphabet soup of derivatives first must be made comprehensible to be controlled.
The author was fortunate to have been in banking in the mid 90s. That particular banking group was very concerned. It was very clear that swaps and derivatives could cause a financial meltdown. The underlying concern was that greed alone would drive the industry into wilder and wilder financial instruments with no underlying value. It did come to pass. As early as July 2007 the auction system for these kinds of instruments started to fail. Financial institutions backed away from taking on these “same as cash” instruments.
For the bankers the bigger fool theory was the rage by then. Systematically, the institutions such as Merrill Lynch, and Wachovia Securities dumped millions of dollars of these into the hands of unsuspecting companies, and even retirees to get them out of their holding before the wheels fell totally off the cart.
The instruments were created by companies such as Blackrock and Nuveen. By mid-February 08 the market for these seized up entirely. We are talking about a 300 billion dollar market freezing up.
When the CDOs froze, retirees among others found their economic lives were at a standstill. Complaints poured into the Office of Financial Regulation.
The players in the industry feigned innocence. The investigations continued. In the end many small investors got back their principal at least.
Was the press interested? Well, it didn’t boil down to a quick set of soundbytes. Besides, the perpetrators were some of the biggest financial institutions in the country.
Finally, when Bernanke and Paulson held the country ransom for 700 billion dollars the story got media attention.
It is not my ideal of accountability to have the taxpayer pay for the financial excesses of the financial institutions.
The rough condition of the stock market just after the last election was rumored to in part have been due to the rumor that “full bonuses” may not be forthcoming to the architects of the meltdown.
For example, Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers was know to be facing a cut. His bonuses in 2007 had been a cool 34 million.
Alan Greenspan for one had believed in the Randian notion of enlightened self interest. That is the belief that any behavior will be restrained if it would kill a golden goose. Greed clearly trumped Objectivism much to the shock of Greenspan.
These “Too big to fail” are not national institutions. They are international. The idea of a sovereign nation is a thing of the past.
Is this to be the new world? Wait and see.
How Does The Stock Market Work: What You Should Know?
Any company which desires to start a new venture will require a capital for it. If not having the required capital in hand these companies make a public offer, in which they can offer their shares to the investors to generate the required money. This offer is termed as an IPO (initial public offering) in which the shares of the company are released at a decided price and number. The number and cost of the shares in the IPO depends mainly on the capital required by the companies for starting this project. Then these shares enter the secondary market and are available for trading by investors through exchanges like the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange), NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation) and the TSE (Toronto Stock Exchange).
Shares can further be bought and sold by investors at the market price giving them a profit or loss. The market price of the share mainly depends on its demand and supply in the market. Thus, when in a high demand, the prices of the shares go up and when more on supply, it falls down. Shares can be bought and sold by any investor through the above mentioned exchanges.
For starting trading through the exchanges every investor has to first open an investment account with a brokerage firm and even an online account through which he can trade via internet.
* Find and read the quote - Read financial newspapers, magazines and sites and search for companies or any products that appear interesting or catch your eye.
The stocks can be bought through an initial issue or a secondary market. Institutional and accredited investors get an advantage of getting IPO’s than normal investors. However the secondary market is full of action with more of buying and selling of shares. This buying and selling happens among the investors in the exchange and the company gets nothing through this transaction.
We have to look at the markets history to clarify ourselves about how does the stock market work. The flow, swing of the market, history of companies, the corporation and the limited liability company (LLC) should be looked into before buying their shares.
A corporation comprises of a group of companies which work on the project for mutual benefits. The corporations may be a public or a private depending on the beholders. These corporations can also issue shares having different classes which offer different privileges to its investor. Some companies can also share their profits by distributing it to the shareholders in form of dividends.
Stock market has been a key source to generate the capital and economy. There have been cases where wrong practices have led to market failures thereby making investment a rigged affair. To know how does the stock market work holds a big importance for new investors before they plan to enter the market. Be it a long term or a short term investor he can make huge amount of money by trading in stock market after having good knowledge and experience in market trading.
Learning how to read the stock market works is very basic for the stock market industry. Anyone who wanted to invest on this business must make sure that he understands this. Day trader is another aspect of the business that he needs to learn.
